Tuesday, December 29, 2015

2016 Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State v Notre Dame



                                       2016 FIESTA BOWL
January 1, 2016                       University of Phoenix Stadium            Glendale, AZ


Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Location: South Bend, IN
Stadium: Notre Dame Stadium (80,795)

Coach: Brian Kelly (6th year): 55-22 at ND/226-79-2 overall, 0-0 v OSU

Series: OSU 3, ND 2
Last Meeting: 1/1/2006: 2006 Fiesta Bowl  OSU 34, ND 20
Last Notre Dame win: 10/2/1936 ND 7, OSU 2
Coach Meyer: (4th year) 49-4 at OSU/153-27 overall, 0-0 v ND
2014 Ohio State Buckeyes (14-1)(9-0)                      2014 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-5)
34        at Navy (Baltimore)    17                                48        Rice                             14
21        Virginia Tech               35                                31        Michigan                       0
66        Kent State                      0                                30        Purdue                         14
50        Cincinnati                    28                                31        at Syracuse                  15
52        at Maryland                24                                 17        Stanford                       14
56        Rutgers                        17                                50        North Carolina             43
31        at Penn State               24 (2OT)                      27        at Florida State            31
55        Illinois                          14                               49        at Navy                        39
49        at Michigan State       37                                 31        at Arizona State          55
31        at Minnesota               24                                40        Northwestern               43
42        Indiana                        27                                28        Louisville                     31
42        Michigan                     28                                14        at Southern Cal            49
59        Wisconsin                      0                                31        Louisiana State            28
            (B1G Championship)                                                   (Music City Bowl)
42        Alabama                      35
            (Sugar Bowl)
42        Oregon                        20
            (National Championship)       

2015 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)(7-1)                      2015 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)
42        at Virginia Tech          24                                38        Texas                             3
38        Hawaii                           0                                34        at Virginia                   27
20        Northern Illinois          13                                30        Georgia Tech              22
38        Western Michigan      12                                62        Massachusetts            27
34        at Indiana                    27                                22        at Clemson                  24
49        Maryland                    28                                41        Navy                            24
38        Penn State                   10                                41        Southern Cal               31
49        at Rutgers                     7                                24        at Temple                    20
28        Minnesota                   14                                42        at Pittsburgh               30
28        at Illinois                       3                                28        Wake Forest                  7
14        Michigan State            17                                19        at Boston College        16
42        at Michigan                 13                                36        at Stanford                  38
J1         Notre Dame                                                                Ohio State
            (Fiesta Bowl)                                                               (Fiesta Bowl)


OHIO STATE OFFENSE v NOTRE DAME DEFENSE: Notre Dame’s strength on defense has been against the pass, while they have been about average against the run.  However, the Irish have some talented defenders among their front seven.  Up front, the Irish are led by senior DT Sheldon Day, who was named a first-team All-American by USA Today and made the second team on the AP and Football Writers’ lists.  Day leads the Irish with a whopping 14.5 tackles for loss and showed his athletic ability in helping to shut down Navy’s option run game.  Sophomore Daniel Cage will be next to Day.  He has recovered from a concussion suffered early last month that caused him to sit out two games to post 17 tackles and three tackles for loss on the year.  The bookend positions are manned most capably by junior Isaac Rochell and senior Romeo Okwara.  Rochell leads all defensive linemen in tackles with 58 and ranks fourth on the team with 7.5 tackles for loss, while Okwara comes into the Fiesta Bowl with 43 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and eight sacks.  Junior Jaylon Smith is one of the quickest, most athletic linebackers in the country, and like Day, Smith was named a first-team All American.  Smith was also a semifinalist for the Bednarik, and Lott awards as well.  He leads the Irish with 113 tackles and also has nine tackles for loss and five pass break ups and is coming off three consecutive games of ten or more tackles.  His cohorts in that linebacker corps, senior Joe Schmidt and sophomore Greer Martini, are also very capable.  Schmidt served a team captain this year and comes into the game with 65 tackles, three tackles for loss and two sacks.  Martini has filled in well for injured starter James Omwalu and comes in with 35 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss.  The Irish secondary has shown itself to be the equal of the passing attacks that have faced them.  They are led by junior FS Max Redfield, who has shown himself to be equally adept at run support and covering deep routes.  Redfield comes in with 64 tackles, two tackles for loss, and three pass breakups.  Opposite Redfield, senior Elijah Shumate has shown his run support ability with 6.5 tackles for loss to go along with his 57 total tackles.  Juniors Devin Butler and Cole Luke man the corner positions.  Butler has eleven tackles, while Luke comes in with 35 tackles, a TFL, and six pass breakups.  
                                             LB Jaylon Smith

Ohio State seemed to solve an issue with the ground game against Michigan by slightly changing up the blocking schemes by getting the TE (Nick Vannett) and a WR or other blockers to the point of attack more quickly than previously.  The Buckeyes ran roughshod over a top-ten defense by using double-TE sets quite a bit and motioning TE Nick Vannett to a fullback spot while TE Marcus Baugh moved next to the tackle on his side.  This forces teams to try to get more defenders spread out to cover in space, where Ohio State will attempt to use superior speed and athletic ability at the point of attack to get past them.  Notre Dame may counter with a 46 “Bear” front and split-safety schemes to try to keep their safeties free to provide run support and keep J.T. Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott from breaking off long runs.  If the Buckeyes can get their skilled athletes past the split-safety scheme and get a blocker on Jaylon Smith, it would almost certainly lead to an Ohio State win by double digits.

OHIO STATE DEFENSE v NOTRE DAME OFFENSE: Notre Dame junior WR Will Fuller is one of the best receivers in the country.  Named Notre Dame’s MVP for 2015, as well as a second-team All American, Fuller ranks sixth nationally in TD catches (13) and 15th in receiving yards (1145).  Fuller is adept at running any kind of route, but has been lethal on opposing defenses on the deep ball; seven of his TD receptions have been for 45 yards or more.  Seniors Chris Brown and Amir Carlisle complement Fuller very well in the Irish passing attack.  Brown is second behind Fuller with 44 receptions and had his career-best with eight against Georgia Tech.  Carlisle will usually line up in the slot and contributes 30 receptions for 341 yards and a score.  Dual-threat sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer pulls the trigger for the Irish offense; his nine rushing touchdowns is the school record for a quarterback.  In fact, his 143 yards on the ground against Stanford are the second-most in a game by a Notre Dame quarterback.  Running is not his only strong suite, as Kizer threw for over 300 yards in games against Temple and Clemson.  Speaking of running, while much has been made of Ezekiel Elliott, the Irish have a thousand-yard rusher of their own.  Senior C.J. Prosise managed 1032 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 6.6 yards per carry.  He received at least one honorable mention All-American award and was a semifinalist for both the Maxwell and Doak Walker awards.  The Irish offensive line is one of the best in the nation, led by senior LT Ronnie Stanley, an almost certain first-round pick in the 2016 NFL draft.  The Irish can also run behind the other tackle, junior Mike McGlinchey, a 6-7, 310 pound behemoth. Senior center Nick Martin, sophomore Quenton Nelson at LG and junior RG Steve Elmer round out the men up front for the Notre Dame offense.  
                                            WR Will Fuller

Ohio State’s run blitz packages off the edge have been a problem for every opposing offense; even Michigan State struggled against two of the best edge defenders in the country in Darron Lee and Joey Bosa.  Notre Dame will need to solve this puzzle to have any chance of success on the ground.  Covering Will Fuller, on the other hand, could be a real challenge, as he averages over twenty yards per catch.  He is very athletic and can do damage over the top or on a quick route and since he usually lines up to the outside on the wide side, he’s hard to bracket with a safety and a cornerback.  The typical Cover 1 and Cover 4 coverages the Buckeye secondary use has made them vulnerable, at times, to deep fades to an outside receiver and deep routes to a slot receiver.  The Buckeyes will need to get Bosa, Tyquan Lewis, and occasionally a blitzing Darron Lee free to get pressure on Kizer.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Justin Yoon has been a very accurate kicker this year, hitting on 15 of his 17 field goal attempts, with a long of 52.  Tyler Newsome has averaged 44 yards punting with a long of 62.  C.J. Sanders will handle both the kickoff and punt return duties, returning one of each for a score.

SUMMARY: Two of the game’s most storied programs meet again in the Fiesta Bowl exactly ten years after they last met on the same field.  A compelling matchup of teams chock full of future NFL stars will see the Buckeyes and Irish trade punches throughout much of the game.  Ohio State seems to have their power run game and speed option and read option offense on a high level the way they performed against a top-ten defense in Ann Arbor.  Look for that offense to eventually get to the edge and Ezekiel Elliott to eventually wear down the Irish defense.  The Ohio State defensive line could have its hands full, playing without Alphonso Washington, which may require a linebacker, such as Darron Lee to play up closer to the line of scrimmage to help out on run support.  If he is successful, that leaves the secondary free to concentrate on covering Fuller and have a good chance against the Irish passing attack.  If this can be achieved, Ohio State eventually wears down Notre Dame and grinds out a Fiesta Bowl win.

                                         OHIO STATE 34, NOTRE DAME 17

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