National Championship Game Preview

                            NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

                                         OHIO STATE v OREGON

                        January 12 2015          AT&T Stadium             Arlington, TX

Oregon Ducks

Location: Eugene, OR

Stadium: Autzen Stadium (54,000)

Coach: Mark Helfrich (2^nd year): 24-3 at Oregon/overall, 15-3 v PAC12, 0-0 v OSU

Series: OSU 8, Oregon 0

Last Meeting: 1/1/2010 (Rose Bowl): OSU 26, Oregon 17

Coach Meyer (3^rd year): 37-3 at OSU/141-26 overall, 28-2 v B1G, 0-0 v Oregon

2013 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2)(8-1)                      2013 Oregon Ducks (11-2)(7-2)

40        Buffalo                                    20                    66        Nicholls State                            3

42        San Diego State                        7                    59        at Virginia                               10

52        at California                            34                    59        Tennessee                                14

76        Florida A&M                            0                    55        California                                16       

31        Wisconsin                                24                   57        Colorado                                 16

40        at Northwestern                      30                    45        at Washington                         24

34        Iowa                                        24                    62        Washington State                    38

63        Penn State                               14                    42        UCLA                                     14

56        at Purdue                                   0                    20        at Stanford                              26

60        at Illinois                                 35                    44        Utah                                        21

42        Indiana                                    14                    16        at Arizona                               42

42        at Michigan                             41                    36        Oregon State                           35

24        Michigan State                        34                    30        Texas                                        7

            (B1G Championship Game)                                       (Alamo Bowl)

35        Clemson                                  40

            (Orange Bowl)

2014 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1)(9-0)                      2014 Oregon Ducks (13-1)(9-1)

34        at Navy (Baltimore)                17                    62        South Dakota                          13

21        Virginia Tech                          35                    46        Michigan State                        27

66        Kent State                                 0                    48        Wyoming                                14

S20                                                                              38        at Washington State                31       

50        Cincinnati                                28                   

52        at Maryland                             24                    24        Arizona                                   31

O11                                                                             42        at UCLA                                 30       

56        Rutgers                                    17                    45        Washington                            20

31        at Penn State                           24 (2OT)         59        at California                            41       

55        Illinois                                     14                    45        Stanford                                  16

49        at Michigan State                    37                    51        at Utah                                    27

31        at Minnesota                           24                   

42        Indiana                                    26                    44        Colorado                                 10

42        Michigan                                 28                    47        at Oregon State                       19

59        Wisconsin                                  0                    51        Arizona                                   13

            (B1G Championship Game)                                       (PAC12 Championship Game)

42        Alabama                                  35                    59        Florida State                           20

            (Sugar Bowl: National Semifinal)                               (Rose Bowl: National Semifinal)

J12       Oregon                                                                                    Ohio State

            (National Championship Game)                                 (National Championship Game)

Ohio State Offense v Oregon Defense: Looking at the numbers over the entire 2014 season does not bode well for the Oregon defense.  Under longtime assistant and first-year coordinator Don Pellum, Oregon has yielded over 421 yards per game and over 22 points per game. Within the Pac-12, arguably the most offensively oriented league in the nation in 2014, Oregon ranked in the middle of the pack in total defense and yards per play allowed and came in next-to-last when it came to stopping third-down conversions.  But, in their last two games, the Ducks have effectively clamped down in runaway wins over Arizona and Florida State, holding the Wildcats to a season-low 13 points in the Pac-12 championship game and FSU to just 20 points in last week’s semifinal round, matching the Seminoles’ worst output in two years.  In the last six games, the Oregon defense has showed solid against the run and stingy in the red zone.  Up front, the Ducks defense starts with junior DE DeForest Buckner, who leads the team in TFLs with 13 to go along with his 73 total tackles, four sacks and four pass break ups.  Buckner is not along on that defensive front, as fellow classmates Alex Balducci (NT) and Arik Armstead at the other DE have had very productive seasons.  Armstead has contributed 37 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and a recovered fumble, taking advantage when opposing offensive lines attempt to double-team Buckner.  Alex Balducci’s continued improvement in the middle has, in no small way, contributed to the improvement of Oregon’s front seven.  He has garnered 13 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, a sack, and a fumble recovery.  The Oregon linebackers have started to jell as a unit during their last six games.  The outside backers have been extremely active in that time, led by senior Tony Washington, who was named defensive MVP of the Rose Bowl after his solid performance, which included a 58-yard scoop and score.  Washington comes into the game with 53 tackles and a whopping 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, two pass breakups and three fumble recoveries.  The other OLB, junior Tyson Coleman, is almost as active.  He garnered three tackles and a fumble recovery in the Rose Bowl and comes in with 40 tackles, six tackles for loss, two sacks, a fumble recovery, and an interception.  The men on the inside, juniors Rodney Hardrick and Joe Walker, add experience and solid play all year to that front seven.  Hardrick will be making his 28^th consecutive start and his solid play has netted him 68 tackles, six tackles for loss and a sack.  Walker has done even better, with 77 tackles, eight tackles for loss, a sack, and a fumble recovery.  Oregon’s secondary features a pair of solid, hard-hitting corners in freshman Chris Seisay and senior Troy Hill.  Making only his second career start in the Rose Bowl, Seisay turned in six tackles and played well in pass coverage.  He comes in with 26 tackles and three pass break ups, making the most of his playing time this season.  Hill has performed well as the Ducks “shut down” corner with 18 pass break ups to go along with his 66 tackles, and an interception.  Hill also has four tackles for loss, showing he can be good at run support too.  Erick Dargan and Reggie Daniels have been two of the most active safeties in the country, with Dargan leading the Ducks in tackles with 90 along with seven interceptions, and with Daniels chipping in 74 along with nine pass breakups and two fumble recoveries.

Ohio State will probably come out similar to the Alabama game in that they want to establish Ezekiel Elliott running off tackle, mixed in with jet sweeps to Jalin Marshall and swing passes to Elliott and Marshall to stretch the Oregon defense.  The Ducks defense is ranked 108^th in the country against the pass, but the secondary may try to take away the deep ball to Devin Smith, which means Jones should be able to throw underneath to Michael Thomas and Evan Spencer.

                                                Erick Dargan

Ohio State Defense v Oregon Offense: The biggest matchup without question will occur between the Ducks offensive line and Ohio State’s defensive line.  Although injuries have taken a toll, the Ducks still have several solid performers.  The left side of the line features three experienced seniors, led by tackle Jake Fisher, a semifinalist for the Outland Award.  Next to him, Hamani Stevens will be making his 28^th consecutive start and has also played at center.  Hroniss Grasu returned to claim his starting center position for the Rose Bowl after missing three games and had a solid outing.  Sophomore Cameron Hunt and freshman Tyrell Crosby have filled in quite well at guard and tackle on the right side, replacing injured teammates.  What more can be said about Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.  The Heisman winner has been lethal on opposing defenses to the tune of 346.6 total yards per game.  Mariota has thrown for over 4100 yards and 40 touchdowns and run for over 700 yards.  Despite losing Devon Allen in the Rose Bowl and Darren Carrington, who was ruled ineligible for this game, Mariota still has a very talented group of receivers.  Dwayne Stanford, Keanon Lowe, and Byron Marshall have shown they are capable of stepping in.  Marshall leads the group with 66 catches for five touchdowns and had five receptions against Florida State, while Stanford has stepped up his game in the latter part of the season, hauling in 34 receptions for 417 yards and five scores in the last nine games.  Lowe has been a good deep threat for the Ducks, with 25 catches for 359 yards and four touchdowns.  Not to be overlooked is tight end Evan Bayless.  Although Bayless has only then receptions this season, six of those came in the Rose Bowl.  With all the focus on Mariota and the Oregon passing game, the Ohio State defense better not forget the Ducks have a good runner in Royce Freeman, who is one of only four true freshmen in Pac-12 history to rush for over 1000 yards.  Freeman comes into the game with 1343 yards, averaging 5.5 per carry with 18 touchdowns.  Freeman has a capable backup, Thomas Tyner, ran for 124 yards on only 13 carries and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl.

It goes without saying this is most prolific offense the Buckeye defense has faced this season.  It’s also safe to say the Ducks offensive line hasn’t faced a defensive front like OSU’s all year either.  The relative inexperience on the right side of Oregon’s offensive line could create mismatches that Michael Bennett, Joey Bosa, Alphonso Washington, and Steve Miller can take advantage of.  If so, they will be able to disrupt plays in the backfield and throw off Mariota’s timing, it will go a long way toward slowing down Oregon’s offense.  Ohio State’s defense will have to have success on first down.  Mariota thrives when he has 2^nd and 5, and 3^rd and short, but isn’t that effective when facing long yardage situations.

                                                       Marcus Mariota

Special Teams: Matt Wogan will do the kicking for the Ducks and he has converted on 7 out of 9 field goal attempts with a long of 34.  Ian Wheeler handles the punting chores for Oregon, averaging 39.0 yards per punt with a long of 53.

SUMMARY: Oregon’s offense overwhelmed Florida State in the Rose Bowl due, in large part, to the Seminoles self-destructing in the third quarter with multiple turnovers.  The Buckeyes have to avoid those mistakes in order to keep pace.  A close, back-and-forth game finally shifts in Ohio State’s favor due to Oregon’s inability to contain Ezekiel Elliott and Cardale Jones short runs.  If Alabama didn’t have enough to slow down Elliott, I’m not sure how Oregon does.  Outside of turning the ball over, Oregon will have trouble slowing down the Ohio State offense.

                                        OHIO STATE 45, OREGON 38